State of the Race Update
To: Gonzalez for Congress
From: Jason Roe
Date: June 18, 2018
Re: State of the Race
On June 12-14, 2018, GS Strategy Group conducted a poll for the Julio Gonzalez for Congress campaign. The survey included 350 Republican primary voters with a +/- 5.65 margin of error. The results are very positive for the Gonzalez campaign and show a clear path to victory.
President Trump, Governor Scott, and Senator Rubio all have very strong approval numbers among GOP voters in the district.
Turning to the race for the 17th Congressional District, there were three ballot tests. Test one is support based on respondents hearing the name of the candidates, test two is based on a test of the candidate’s bios, and test three is based on a test of positive and negative messages we expect voters to hear during the course of the campaign.
As you can see from the graph below, Senator Greg Steube starts with a marginal advantage (+6%), based on higher name ID given his longer history in public office and the prominence of his father, Manatee County Sheriff Brad Steube. However, just introducing the candidate’s bios, Sen. Steube drops to third place, and after testing messages on all the candidates, Dr. Gonzalez takes a commanding +20% lead over Steube, and a +14% lead over Akins.
Based on these numbers, one would expect Steube to run a negative campaign against Dr. Gonzalez in order to prevent his stronger profile and record from overwhelming Steube’s image. However, testing the hits Steube is expected to use against some of his own vulnerabilities, the attacks fall flat. Just last week, Steube launched a negative campaign against Gonzalez.
Dr. Gonzalez begins the race with a large fundraising advantage, having raised $233,000 to Steube’s $63,000 in the first fundraising report of the campaign. Dr. Gonzalez is having another very strong quarter and has also been endorsed by Senator Marco Rubio, nearly a dozen members of Congress, and the American Medical Association.
If Dr. Gonzalez maintains the fundraising advantage, he is poised to win the August 28 primary and given the safe GOP registration advantage, become the next Member of Congress from the 17th District.